Updated Indy 500 Predictions

The 108th Indianapolis 500 will be held this Sunday at the famed Indianapolis Motor Speedway. You may recall that in early March of this year I posted my way too early prediction for the race. Here’s my March 2024 prediction:

108th Running of the Indianapolis 500 (March 2024)

  1. Kyle Kirkwood
  2. Scott McLaughlin
  3. Colton Herta
  4. Marcus Ericsson
  5. Josef Newgarden
  6. Alexander Rossi
  7. Scott Dixon
  8. Christian Lundgaard
  9. Conor Daly
  10. Pato O’Ward

This prediction was made long before practice and qualifying, which took place this past week and weekend. That was before Team Penske locked out the front row in qualifying, before Chevy engines began experiencing “plenum events,” before much of Rahal, Letterman, Lanigan (RLL) cars–with the exception of their fourth driver, Takuma Sato–struggled to qualify, and before Marcus Ericsson wrecked his primary car and barely got his backup car into the show.

I’m not running away from my previous prediction (well, maybe a little bit), but if I were to predict the top 10 finishers today, here’s what my list would look like:

108th Running of the Indianapolis 500 (May 2024)

  1. Alexander Rossi
  2. Scott McLaughlin
  3. Will Power
  4. Colton Herta
  5. Josef Newgarten
  6. Kyle Kirkwood
  7. Pato O’Ward
  8. Rinus Veekay
  9. Scott Dixon
  10. Santino Ferrucci

Team Penske looks incredibly stout. They locked out the front row in qualifying and were clearly the class of the field.

Arrow McLaren looks really good, with Alexander Rossi looking especially racey. Pato O’Ward was good, but maybe not as good as I expected. Callum Illot, driving his final race for Arrow McLaren this year, did an acceptable job. Finally, NASCAR star Kyle Larson was exceptional, qualifying fifth in his first-ever IndyCar race.

Chip Ganassi Racing isn’t as strong at IMS as they usually are. Even so, Scott Dixon always seems to find his way to the pointy end of the field. Don’t count out Alex Palou. I didn’t include him in my top 10 and I’m already afraid I’m going to regret it.

Andretti Global had an up-and-down practice week, having had trouble finding pace. Even so, in the end they qualified Colton Herta and Kyle Kirkwood near the front of the field, Marco Andretti in 19th position, and barely got Ericsson into the fastest thirty-three., qualifying him in the 32nd position.

RLL struggled again this year, qualifying Christian Lungaard in 28th position, Pietro Fittipaldi in 30th, and Graham Rahal in 33rd. The one positive note for RLL was qualifying Takuma Sato in 10th.

Meyer Shank Racing looked fair to fairly good at different times throughout practice and qualifying, landing Felix Rosenquist in 9th position, Helio Castroneves in 20th, and Tom Bloomqvist in 26th.

AJ Foyt Racing showed improved pace, qualifying Santino Ferrucci in the fast 6 and Sting Ray Robb in 23rd. Look out for Ferrucci. He may not be very popular with his fellow drivers, but he knows his way around the Speedway.

Juncos Hollinger Racing showed speed at times, but could only muster a 22nd for Augustin Canapino and 26th for Romain Grossjean.

Dale Coyne really struggled, qualifying Katherine Legge–the only female in the race–in 31st position, and failing to qualify Nolan Seigel into the race.

Ed Carpenter Racing was kind of all over the board. Rinus Veekay was the highest qualifying ECR car in 7th position. Team owner Ed Carpenter qualified in 17th, and Christian Rasmussen qualified 24th.

Finally, Dreyer & Reinbold Racing (running two one-off programs) qualified Ryan Hunter Reay in a surprising 12th position, and Conor Daly–who got bit bad by the “plenum event” bug–in 29th. Don’t count out Daly. He has a fast car that was hit with some bad luck. If he can keep his nose clean in the race, expect Daly to be a big mover.

That’s it. I’m looking forward to a great race. And although I’m certain my predictions are correct, please remember that such predictions are intended for entertainment purposes only and are not offered for the purpose of wagering. 😉


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