Tuesday, November 5 is election day. Million of people will head to the polls to vote for Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, or one of the third-party candidates for President of the United States. It’s an extremely important day, made all the more important because of the vastly different visions the two main candidates have for our country.
Once the votes are all counted and the results are announced, what can we expect to take place in the days (and months) following the election?
I don’t have a crystal ball and I’m not clairvoyant, but I do have an expectation of how things will go. Here’s what I’m thinking:
I’m “nauseously optimistic” that Harris will win the election by a significant margin, more than most people have predicted. Why? Because I think the polls are way undercounting the votes of suburban women who I predict will vote in higher numbers than expected for Harris. I also think that more men than expected will vote for Harris primarily on the issue of abortion. After all, abortion doesn’t only impact women. It is a human issue, not just a women’s issue.
I expect Harris will win the traditionally blue states, as well as Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. North Carolina and Georgia are in play for Harris, and although I think she’ll lose Florida and Texas, I believe it will be closer than expected.
As many have predicted, I don’t think Trump will accept the election results or concede. He’s already setting up an expectation that the election is going to be rigged, and I won’t be at all surprised when he claims voter fraud. I also won’t be surprised when he is unable to prove any voter fraud widespread enough to affect the outcome of the race. He’ll likely file lawsuits and hold “Stop the Steal” rallies, but he’ll be unable to point to any credible evidence of voter fraud.
Trump claims to have a secret with House Speaker Mike Johnson that will be revealed after the election. I obviously don’t know what it is (they don’t share their secrets with me) but I have to imagine it has something to do with certification of the electors. Each state certifies their own electors, and in many states, even if the legislature refuses to certify the winning slate of electors, the governor can do it. In other states, a court can force a certifier to certify the election results once a writ of mandamus is filed. Finally, there are states where a certifier who refuses to certify the election results can simply be removed. In other words, it seems impossible for a state not to certify its election results.
It’s also been suggested that the House of Representatives could decide not to accept the certified electors on a party line vote (Republicans for, Democrats against) and would send the election vote back to the state legislatures to decide. This is the fringe theory known as the Independent State Legislature (ISL) theory that was being pushed in the wake of the 2020 presidential election. However, in the case of Moore v. Harper, the Supreme Court already weighed in and found that the ISL theory was a misreading of the Constitution, so I’m not sure how Trump and the Republicans would make it work for them this time around.
Honestly, Congress does not have a lot of discretion when it comes to accepting the certification of electors. So, I’m at a loss to explain what this secret is that Trump and Johnson plan on rolling out after the election. It very well could be something that my imagination can’t conger up, but it seems to me the more radical the idea, the less likely it is to work.
So, there are guardrails in place to stop Trump from overturning a free and fair election, but what happens if/when Trump’s efforts fail in Congress? What is the next potential step?
Unfortunately, if Trump and his supporters don’t get their way in the courts or in Congress, the only way to try to overturn the results of the election is through brute force. Will Trump supporters take to the streets to protest? Will those protests turn ugly and violent? Many on the right have been preparing for a civil war for years and have threatened one if Trump is cheated out of the presidency. The problem with these people is that they don’t require a particularly high level of proof to believe that Trump was cheated. In fact, many of them are claiming that voter fraud is taking place already, although they’ve been unable to provide any evidence to back up their claims.
What little prognosticating ability I have falls apart at this point. I want to believe in the goodness of my fellow Americans. I want to believe that they will accept the results of the election and will not think there was any fraud unless there is, in fact, credible proof of fraud. I want to believe those things, but the aftermath of the 2020 election and the rhetoric during the lead up to the 2024 election does not inspire much confidence in that wish.
We are entering uncharted territory with this election. Never before have we faced the possibility of the end of our Constitutional democracy if one candidate wins, or a potential civil war if he loses. My hope is that he will lose and we will keep our democracy, but also that his supporters will see that the election was free and fair, and they will accept the results without protests or violence. As we approach the 2024 presidential election, perhaps the most consequential in our history, this is my sincerest hope for the nation.
